Conservatives Monitoring The Liberal Left
Tea Party Patriots
2010 Election Cycle Starts Now !
Nov 15th
Sorry I am late posting this, but I am bogged down with writing several papers for school. I have list of stuff I need to add once I get to a conformable position with progress in my term papers and thesis papers.
Above, is a rally that our friends @ CSA had last Saturday (Nov. 7th), entitled “2010 Starts Now”. Steve Flanagan of CSA gave a speech that reenergized tea party members, highlighted the victories of the 2009 election cycle, and outlined the beginnings of a strategy for 2010 elections. Visit CSA @ www.CSA-1776.org and on meetup.com where many members chat online between meetings and political action events. Although they are based and active on Long Island, in New York, this group has ignited much of the bigger Tea Party movements throughout the US. They were the first with the Town Hall Confrontations of elected officials (Steve Bishop), which made it into the mainstream media and gave the democrats a BIG problem during the August recess this past summer, extending way into the fall. The strategy of CSA has been a model for other groups across the US, and collectively through our actions we are bringing real change. Shout out to Virginia and New Jersey for turning their state leadership from blue to red. 2010 will see more of the same in local, state and national politics. Change, it’s commin’ and were taking Back America, and throwing the bums out.
The Myth of ’08, Demolished
Nov 6th
The Myth of ’08, Demolished
WASHINGTON — Sure, Election Day 2009 will scare moderate Democrats and make passage of Obamacare more difficult. Sure, it makes it easier for resurgent Republicans to raise money and recruit candidates for 2010. But the most important effect of Tuesday’s elections is historical. It demolishes the great realignment myth of 2008.
In the aftermath of last year’s Obama sweep, we heard endlessly about its fundamental, revolutionary, transformational nature. How it was ushering in an FDR-like realignment for the 21st century in which new demographics — most prominently, rising minorities and the young — would bury the GOP far into the future. One book proclaimed “The Death of Conservatism,” while the more modest merely predicted the terminal decline of the Republican Party into a regional party of the Deep South or a rump party of marginalized angry white men.
This was all ridiculous from the beginning. 2008 was a historical anomaly. A uniquely charismatic candidate was running at a time of deep war weariness, with an intensely unpopular Republican president, against a politically incompetent opponent, amid the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression. And still he won by only seven points.
Exactly a year later comes the empirical validation of that skepticism. Virginia — presumed harbinger of the new realignment, having gone Democratic in ’08 for the first time in 44 years — went red again. With a vengeance. Barack Obama had carried it by six points. The Republican gubernatorial candidate won by 17 — a 23-point swing. New Jersey went from plus 15 Democratic in 2008 to minus 4 in 2009. A 19-point swing.
What happened? The vaunted Obama realignment vanished. In 2009 in Virginia, the black vote was down by 20 percent; the under-30 vote by 50 percent. And as for independents, the ultimate prize of any realignment, they bolted. In both Virginia and New Jersey they’d gone narrowly for Obama in ’08. This year they went Republican by a staggering 33 points in Virginia and by an equally shocking 30 points in New Jersey.
White House apologists will say the Virginia Democrat was weak. If the difference between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds was so great, how come when the same two men ran against each other statewide for attorney general four years ago the race was a virtual dead heat? Which made the ’09 McDonnell-Deeds rematch the closest you get in politics to a laboratory experiment for measuring the change in external conditions. Run them against each other again when it’s Obamaism in action and see what happens. What happened was a Republican landslide.
The Obama coattails of 2008 are gone. The expansion of the electorate, the excitement of the young, came in uniquely propitious Democratic circumstances and amid unparalleled enthusiasm for electing the first African-American president.
November ’08 was one-shot, one-time, never to be replicated. Nor was November ’09 a realignment. It was a return to the norm — and definitive confirmation that 2008 was one of the great flukes in American political history.
The irony of 2009 is that the anti-Democratic tide overshot the norm — deeply blue New Jersey, for example, elected a Republican governor for the first time in 12 years — because Democrats so thoroughly misread 2008 and the mandate they assumed it bestowed. Obama saw himself as anointed by a watershed victory to remake American life. Not letting the cup pass from his lips, he declared to Congress only five weeks after his swearing-in his “New Foundation” for America — from remaking the one-sixth of the American economy that is health care to massive government regulation of the economic lifeblood that is energy.
Moreover, the same conventional wisdom that proclaimed the dawning of a new age last November dismissed the inevitable popular reaction to Obama’s hubristic expansion of government, taxation, spending and debt — the tea party demonstrators, the town hall protesters — as a raging rabble of resentful reactionaries, AstroTurf-phony and Fox News-deranged.
Some rump. Just last month Gallup found that conservatives outnumber liberals by 2 to 1 (40 percent to 20 percent) and even outnumber moderates (at 36 percent). So on Tuesday, the “rump” rebelled. It’s the natural reaction of a center-right country to a governing party seeking to rush through a left-wing agenda using temporary majorities created by the one-shot election of 2008. The misreading of that election — and of the mandate it allegedly bestowed — is the fundamental cause of the Democratic debacle of 2009.
Conservative Society For Action Halloween Rally – All Politics Are Local
Nov 2nd
Our friends at Conservative Society For Action (CSA), the main force behind the tea party movement in Long Island, New York had their get out the vote rally on Halloween afternoon on 10/31/09. Director Steve Flanagan gave a motivating speech that highlights the problems with national and local politics. He stressed that there are no such thing as an off year election, and by ignoring local elections, our country has got to where we are today, Remember to vote this election day in your town. From the guy who paves your roads, to local judges, to state representatives, to governor make sure you get out there and vote. Time to take our country back!! Go Hoffmaan-23
Direction of GOP at Center of N.Y. Congressional Race
Oct 31st
Doug Hoffman, Conservative Party candidate in upstate New York. Photo AP Press
WASHINGTON — What began as a little-noticed congressional campaign in upstate New York has become a high-profile battle for the direction of the Republican Party, and it could play a big role in the GOP’s approach to the 2010 elections and beyond.
With Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman mounting a serious challenge to moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens, prominent Republicans are splitting support between Mr. Hoffman and Ms. Scozzafava, providing an unusually raw display of the party’s divisions.
Supporters of Mr. Hoffman, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, say the GOP needs to return to its conservative roots. Backers of Ms. Scozzafava, such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, say the party must embrace centrists who can capture swing districts.
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Associated Press
Doug Hoffman, Conservative Party candidate in upstate New York.
There have been few neutral surveys in recent weeks, but polls backed by both liberal and conservative groups suggest this has become a two-person race between Messrs. Owens and Hoffman. Democrats, clearly viewing it that way, have been aiming their fire at Mr. Hoffman.
The vacancy occurred when President Barack Obama chose the district’s eight-term congressman, Rep. John McHugh, to serve as secretary of the Army.
The district has been in GOP hands for nearly 120 years. There are about 46,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, though Mr. Obama won 52% of the vote there in 2008. Like the rest of the Northeast, New York state has trended Democratic; only two of its 29 House members are Republicans, down from nine in 2004.
The latest surprise came Thursday, when former New York Gov. George Pataki, a moderate Republican, endorsed Mr. Hoffman. The move may signal that some Republicans have given up on Ms. Scozzafava.
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said in an interview that the tumultuous race reflects a healthy ferment within the party. “The fight is, are you going to adhere to principles or are you going to be a Democrat-light?” he said. Asked if that meant Ms. Scozzafava represented “Democrat-light,” Mr. Steele said that was up to voters.
The intra-GOP battle has intensified as polls suggest support for Mr. Obama is slipping. Some Republicans believe the path to victory lies in tapping the energy of conservative activists. Others want to replicate Democrats’ success in appealing to independents.
Republicans would likely cite a Hoffman win as a vindication of conservative principles. If Mr. Owens wins, Democrats will say it prove that splits in the GOP are hobbling the party.
The race also may determine what kind of candidates the GOP recruits for 2010. A Hoffman win could persuade them to tack to the right, while a Democratic victory could boost centrists’ prospects.
—Jonathan Weisman contributed to this article.
Write to Naftali Bendavid at naftali.bendavid@wsj.com
Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group
Oct 26th
Compared with 2008, more Americans “conservative” in general, and on issues
PRINCETON, NJ — Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.
“Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008.”
The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either “very conservative” or “conservative.” Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves “moderate,” while the percentage calling themselves “very liberal” or “liberal” has consistently registered between 20% and 21% — making liberals the smallest of the three groups.
Independents Inch to the Right
Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are “conservative” has increased by one point each.
As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).
Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues
In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.
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Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
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The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
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Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict — the traditionally liberal position — fell from 49% to 44%.)
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The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
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The propensity to want the government to “promote traditional values” — as opposed to “not favor any particular set of values” – rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
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The percentage of Americans who consider themselves “pro-life” on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
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Americans’ belief that the global warming problem is “exaggerated” in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.
Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, attitudes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup’s annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those attitudes are not included in this review.)
The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents’ views as from changes in Republicans’ views. Democrats’ views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly — either to the conservative or liberal side — with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats’ views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative.
Bottom Line
Americans are more likely to consider themselves conservative this year than they were in 2008, resulting in conservatives — now 40% of the American public — outnumbering moderates for the first time since 2004. While Gallup first documented this trend in June, the finding has been sustained through the third quarter.
Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 — compared with 29% last year. Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. Republicans, most of whom considered themselves ideologically conservative in 2008, have also grown more conservative on several of these issues this year, while less change is seen among Democrats.
All of this has potentially important implications at the ballot box, particularly for the 2010 midterm elections. The question is whether increased conservatism, particularly among independents, will translate into heightened support for Republican candidates. Right now, it appears it may. Although Gallup polling continues to show the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party in Americans’ party identification, that lead has been narrowing since the beginning of the year and now stands at six points, the smallest since 2005. According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, “the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party.” That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.
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Survey Methods
The 2009 political ideology results reported here are based on 16 aggregated Gallup surveys conducted from January to September 2009. For results based on the total sample of 16,321 national adults, aged 18 and older, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Hoffman Surges Into Lead in NY-23
Oct 26th
CFG Poll: Hoffman Leading in NY-23
Hoffman Surges Into Lead in NY-23
New CFG Poll shows Hoffman 31.3%, Owens 27.0%, Scozzafava 19.7%
Washington – A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.
This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.
“Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week,” concluded Basswood Research’s pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.
The Club For Growth – http://www.clubforgrowth.org
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New Big Government – Acorn Scandal Video # 5 Philadelphia, PA
Oct 21st
This is the first of about 4 video’s form Philadelphia PA, I’ll post the rest later today.
Basically, this series shows everything ACORN has thrown out there about HAnna and James visit to ACORN Philadelphia is not true, but lies to cover their asses. James edited the audio as to comply with the illegal wiretap laws of the state.
Video Part 1
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